{
  "id": "DUKE-PROMOTION-20261110",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "brand": "DUKE Analytics",
  "locale": "en",
  "status": "release-ready",
  "title": "Sales are up. Should you renew the promotion?",
  "description": "A promotion can lift revenue while reducing gross margin. A method to weigh price, volume, margin and target before renewing, changing or stopping the offer. Fictional example.",
  "slug": "sales-are-up-should-you-renew-the-promotion",
  "preparedAt": "2026-11-10",
  "updatedAt": "2026-11-10",
  "publishedAt": "2026-11-10",
  "canonical_url": "https://duke-analytics.com/blog/sales-are-up-should-you-renew-the-promotion",
  "alternate_urls": [
    {
      "locale": "en",
      "url": "https://duke-analytics.com/blog/sales-are-up-should-you-renew-the-promotion"
    },
    {
      "locale": "fr",
      "url": "https://duke-analytics.com/blog/les-ventes-montent-faut-il-reconduire-la-promotion"
    },
    {
      "locale": "de",
      "url": "https://duke-analytics.com/blog/umsatz-steigt-soll-die-verkaufsaktion-verlaengert-werden"
    }
  ],
  "illustrative_notice": "Fictional scenario. Not a customer result, not a demand forecast and not proof that DUKE executed a campaign.",
  "sequence": [
    {
      "step": "ASK",
      "text": "Which promotions should we renew, change or stop?"
    },
    {
      "step": "VERIFY",
      "text": "Check the definitions, the scope and the elements used for comparison."
    },
    {
      "step": "ACT",
      "text": "Prepare an approved decision: reduce a discount, narrow the scope or set up a test."
    },
    {
      "step": "REVIEW",
      "text": "Observe the commercial result separately from confirmation of the action."
    }
  ],
  "body_markdown": "Hey cats,\n\nA promotion lifts revenue by 40%. Units sold have doubled. The picture looks favourable, until the team compares gross margin: it has been cut in half. So the question is not only whether the offer sold more. The team needs to understand what it produced and decide what it expects from the next one.\n\nThe example below is fictional. Prices and product cost are stated on a comparable basis, excluding taxes. Gross margin here means revenue minus the cost of goods sold only. Campaign, delivery, payment, service and other costs are excluded. This is neither a customer result nor a demand forecast.\n\n## Rebuild the result before commenting on growth\n\nBefore the promotion, 100 units are sold at $100 each. Product cost is $60 per unit. Revenue reaches $10,000 and gross margin $4,000.\n\nDuring the promotion, the price drops to $70 and sales rise to 200 units. Revenue reaches $14,000, but gross margin is now only $2,000.\n\n| Measure | Baseline | Promotion |\n|---|---:|---:|\n| Price per unit | $100 | $70 |\n| Units sold | 100 | 200 |\n| Revenue | $10,000 | $14,000 |\n| Total product cost | $6,000 | $12,000 |\n| Gross margin per unit | $40 | $10 |\n| Total gross margin | $4,000 | $2,000 |\n\nThe price cut removes $30 of margin from every unit. Doubling the volume does not make up for that gap. At the new price, 400 units would have to be sold to recover the baseline gross margin of $4,000: 4,000 ÷ (70 − 60). That volume is a calculated threshold, not proof that 400 buyers exist.\n\n## Choose the result you are looking for\n\nA lower gross margin is not enough to condemn the offer. It may have been designed to clear stock, recruit customers or respond to a specific commercial constraint. Each of these intentions, however, calls for a different measure.\n\nTo clear stock, the team needs to look at the quantities remaining, the items concerned and the avoided costs it is able to document. To recruit customers, it needs to separate new buyers from regulars, then observe their later purchases over an explicit period. An order won during a discount does not, on its own, prove loyalty.\n\nThe choice must be made before the next promotion. Otherwise, a favourable measure easily ends up replacing the original objective.\n\n## Compare options rather than repeat a mechanism\n\nLet us keep only the assumptions of our example, with product cost held at $60. At $80 per unit, gross margin per unit would be $20: 200 units would be enough to reach $4,000. At $90, it would be $30: at least 134 units would be needed to reach that amount.\n\n| Price considered | Gross margin per unit | Minimum volume to reach $4,000 |\n|---|---:|---:|\n| $70 | $10 | 400 |\n| $80 | $20 | 200 |\n| $90 | $30 | 134 |\n\nThese calculations do not say how customers will react to each price. They give the team a framework to discuss the discount, the duration, the scope and the risk it accepts. An offer limited to certain items can also be compared with a general discount, provided that populations and costs are not mixed.\n\n## Check that the figures describe the same thing\n\nBefore deciding, the team needs to know whether it is counting orders, shipments or invoices. Are cancellations and returns treated the same way in both periods? Do discounts stack? Has product cost changed? Do the identifiers make it possible to tell a new customer from a known customer using another account?\n\nThese choices are not presentation details. They determine the result being compared. A total can be calculated correctly and still answer a different question from the one the sales director is asking.\n\n## From finding to approved decision\n\nIn DUKE Analytics’ ASK / VERIFY / ACT approach, the starting question can be: “Which promotions should we renew, change or stop?” Verification then covers the definitions, the scope and the elements used to compare the options.\n\nThe decision may be to reduce a discount, narrow the scope or prepare a test. Any action in a business tool must remain subject to the scope, permissions and integration actually available. This article illustrates a decision method; it does not prove that DUKE executed a campaign.\n\nThe accompanying decision brief helps document the objective, the baseline, the option chosen, the person who approves and the review date. The commercial result will need to be observed separately from confirmation that the action was carried out. A before/after comparison, on its own, does not demonstrate a causal effect.",
  "cta": {
    "label": "Evaluate a promotion with DUKE Analytics",
    "url": "https://duke-analytics.com/book-demo",
    "meaning": "Bring one promotion, the data used to judge it and the decision to be made. The team can examine the definitions, the useful comparisons and the implementation scope."
  },
  "downloads": {
    "article_pdf": "https://duke-analytics.com/downloads/duke-promotion-article.en.pdf",
    "decision_brief_pdf": "https://duke-analytics.com/downloads/duke-promotion-decision-brief.en.pdf"
  },
  "decision_brief": {
    "title": "Promotion decision brief",
    "url": "https://duke-analytics.com/resources/promotion-decision-brief/en",
    "format": "text/html; fillable PDF",
    "intro": "A practical worksheet to prepare the decision to renew, change or stop a promotion before examining it with the DUKE Analytics team. Complete it with sales or marketing leadership and the finance lead.",
    "notice": "Worksheet for discussion. It performs no automatic calculation. Completing it does not configure, approve or execute any action, and it does not establish that an integration is available for your setup.",
    "sections": [
      {
        "title": "Objective and scope",
        "prompts": [
          "What result should the promotion produce: clear stock, recruit customers, other?",
          "Which items, channels and period are concerned?",
          "Which decision must be taken: renew, change or stop?"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Baseline",
        "prompts": [
          "Baseline price per unit, excluding taxes and on a comparable basis.",
          "Units sold in the baseline period, and what is counted: orders, shipments or invoices.",
          "Product cost per unit used."
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Option considered",
        "prompts": [
          "Price considered.",
          "Volume considered, or threshold to reach as calculated and checked by the team.",
          "Duration and scope of the option."
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Excluded costs and limits",
        "prompts": [
          "Which costs are excluded: campaign, delivery, payment, service, other?",
          "How are cancellations, returns and stacked discounts treated?",
          "Which limits remain: unproven demand, non-causal before/after comparison?"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Approver and owner",
        "prompts": [
          "Who approves the option chosen?",
          "Who implements it, in which tool and with which permissions?",
          "Who handles exceptions?"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Measure and review date",
        "prompts": [
          "Which measure will judge the result, over which period?",
          "How will confirmation of the action be kept separate from the commercial result?",
          "On which date is the review scheduled?"
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "url": "https://duke-analytics.com/",
      "title": "DUKE Analytics — official published product positioning",
      "note": "Describes the ASK / VERIFY / ACT approach. No measured result, causal effect or specific connector is claimed."
    }
  ],
  "resource_note": "All amounts come from the fictional scenario and the calculations set out in this article. Accompanying resource: the promotion decision brief, a practical worksheet with no automatic calculation.",
  "related_article": {
    "title": "From a verified finding to an approved business action",
    "url": "https://duke-analytics.com/blog/from-verified-finding-to-approved-business-action"
  },
  "exports": {
    "markdown": "https://duke-analytics.com/articles/duke-promotion.en.md",
    "json": "https://duke-analytics.com/articles/duke-promotion.en.json",
    "index": "https://duke-analytics.com/articles/duke-promotion.llms.txt"
  }
}